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Blackjack odds: your chance of busting on every hit
These are the standard published probabilities of busting when you take exactly one more card:
| Your hand | Bust chance on one hit |
|---|---|
| 12 | 31% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 21 | 100% |
How to use the chart
Combine these numbers with the dealer-upcard logic from when to hit or stand. Standing on 12-16 against a dealer 2-6 feels scared, but it is pure math: your 16 busts 62% of the time when you hit, while the dealer showing a 6 busts more often than any other upcard. Letting the dealer take the risk wins more often than taking it yourself.
Soft hands are different
None of this applies to soft hands - an ace counted as 11 means you cannot bust on one card, which is why soft totals are hit and doubled aggressively. Drill the decisions in the free practice game.